Cross-posted on One Million Strong
Much has been written about the extremely early January 3rd caucus date: We've talked about how the date will impact student turnout, about how the holidays will influence messaging and willingness to run negative advertising, and about difficulties in reaching voters tuning out the news and in recruiting volunteers busy with family.
I've also written about how caucus-goers will be surrounded with a different set of influentials ––– instead of discussing politics with their co-workers and friends, voters will be spending a great deal more time with their extended family. How will this change their decision-making process?
Well, here are two more things to add to the list of unintended consequences magnifying the influence of money on our political process:
1. Fourth quarter fundraising will end on December 31st, 2007, three days before the Iowa caucus... The implications of candidates announcing their fundraising totals just before voters go to caucus could be huge.
2. Candidates will be competing with Christmas shopping advertising, driving up the cost of television and radio ads.
I explain after the fold...
1. Fourth Quarter Fundraising:
Candidates report on their fundraising totals to the FEC every three months, with the current fundraising quarter ending on December 31st. Candidates then have fifteen days to deliver their full reports to the FEC.
Most candidates however announce their totals publicly around the end of the quarter, doing their best to manage expectations and generate publicity.
In this case, the fundraising quarter will end just three days before the Iowa caucus. The winner of the fundraising contest will receive extra press coverage just as voters are making their final decision.
Will Clinton pull off another mammoth quarter? Will Obama manage another upset, now that the summer lull is over? These kinds of narratives, tiresome as they've become, may set the tone for the final days of media coverage before the caucus.
This is especially troublesome since most candidates would probably like to transition away from fundraising on the coasts and campaign all-out in Iowa from now until caucus day.
But it's beyond just positive coverage for the winner: Fundraising totals from Chris Dodd and Joe Biden --- as well as Mike Huckabee on the Republican side --- will undoubtedly raise questions about the viability of their candidacies after Iowa and may give voters pause.
Bill Richardson, John Edwards and, even more interestingly, some major Republican candidates (definitely John McCain, probably Fred Thompson, but perhaps even Giuliani) will likely be outraised, possibly dramatically, by Ron Paul. What kind of narrative will this drive? Ron Paul will offer a strange and unpredictable bar in fundraising coverage this cycle.
2. The Cost of Advertising:
As Kay Henderson, news director for Radio Iowa, reported last week on the Lehrer NewsHour:
Retailers are being notified by some television stations in Iowa that their ads, indeed, may be bumped as the Christmas holiday period looms, partly because the campaigns are willing to pay top dollar, absolutely as much as possible as those TV stations charge for those ads. And so, from a TV station's standpoint, they want that top dollar, and they bump some retailers.
Campaigns are directly competing with retailers to put ads on the airwaves, raising the price of those ads probably dramatically. Second- and third-tier candidates will probably have a harder time keeping pace in the final weeks.
Edwards might be particularly affected. Being the only candidate following public financing spending limits, Edwards will get less bang for his buck during the holiday season, whereas Obama and Clinton will simply be able to funnel in more funds from elsewhere.
Campaigns are already spending at a breakneck pace. Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group reported on the NewsHour that candidates are spending "between $40,000 and $70,000 a day."
Obama, Clinton, Richardson, and Romney have all already spent more "than John Kerry spent in all of 2003 and 2004." Tracey described this as a pace "normally reserved for the last couple of weeks. And we've been really at these levels, you know, probably for 90 days out of the caucus date."
If Romney chooses to go negative or to draw contrasts on the air against Huckabee, Huckabee will in all likelihood be unable to respond.
Add to that the special enthusiasm on the Democratic side for the front-runners, and you have a climate that will make it much harder for second- and third-tier candidates to break out in Iowa.